While the bear flag-like price pattern (I don't think it was a real bear flag because volume didn't confirm) didn't do exactly what I would have thought, the main point is it has started to reverse which was the end result in any case.
Here are some of the more significant harts in the averages today.
DIA with the white positive divergence shown earlier which created that bear flag like move up and since it has gone negative and slightly leading negative now. The DIA remains down on the day.
Here's the short term IWM, the reversal is pretty clear, the leading component is one of the stronger leading negatives n the market right now. I suppose you could look at the bear flag like pattern as being head faked with a move in to the green, that would produce the same results as far as traders go, now the IWM has moved back in to the red.
The 2 min chart shows the positive divergence which lifted the market off the early lows and you can see the negative and leading negative divergences in effect here-not a great move considering the NFP.
The Q's also have a bad leading negative divergence, they reman slightly in the green, although I don't expect this to last much longer.
Here's the SPY positive divergence (notice all the averages had a positive divergence off the early lows today- like when we have good confirmation like that) and it has since put in a negative divergence, again right as the SPY poked its head in to the green. So the head fake on the flag I suppose did happen, just in a different way then we usually see.
The 5 min chart here (which is a lot more meaningful the the 1-2 min charts) has probably the worst leading negative divergence, not just because of position, but because of the longer time frame.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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