Friday, January 6, 2012

No Big Surprises Here

 There was a 1 min relative divergence in the area so the "bear flag" looking move right not is not surprising.

 The 5 min chart does a better job in showing the rollover, if I had to guess, I would say that the 4:10 p.m. Bloomberg denial of the Obama mortgage plan was known in the market if not all day, at least toward the close, BAC showed some problems late n the day and we see a negative divergence late in the day as well.

 The bigger picture here is still not pretty with the 60 min leading negative.

 So we have what looks like a bear flag, volume is a bit off for the pattern, but most traders have forgotten about volume and have turned to a number of the latest trendy indicators so I would think this bear flag looking price pattern may see an upside head fake before it moves lower, although it's not really that big.

As I spelled out yesterday before it happened, (what happens with ascending wedges), pretty much everything I touched on has happened, the head fake out of the wedge, the move below it stopping out longs who thought the head fake breakout made it a failed pattern (I showed you the stops getting hit in the DIA yesterday from longs as I explained how they would switch from a short to a long and be 2 time losers.) Ultimately now, the downside target moving forward is a retrace to the base of the wedge.

I need to look at internals, but I see no reason we shouldn't move to that level.

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