Catalysts? CONTEXT

Since CONTEXT is dropping again today away from ES I figured I'd take a closer look, being the market just saw a little pop. The F_E_D's Beige Book was released at 2 p.m., no reaction from the market, and with Europe closed, that was all that was on the schedule for the rest of today, my assumption was the pop was a Euro arbitrage based move; that appears to be the case.

 Commodities which have a strong Euro correlation moved a little, nothing like yesterday though and are still lagging the S&P.

 Rates certainly had nothing to do with it as they have sold off to the lows of the day.

 Actually Rates have sold off to new lows for the new year today.

 Here's the SPX/EURO correlation, that seems to be the catalyst.

We'll look closer at the EUR/USD in a moment.

 Longer term, but not much longer, the Euro is still significantly lower then the implied correlation

Credit wasn't behind the move or even with it

Here's another look at the Euro/SPX correlation for today.

I put the arrow below but it is pointing down as the Euro makes a lower high and the SPX made a higher high, since it is correlation with the Euro, the Euro is what should be watched in to the close, not that t's a huge move or deal at this point.

Here's the EUR/USD which saw a minor move up at the exact same time as the market.

On a slightly longer term to see the recent trend..

Looks pretty normal to me. I think more then anything, just the fact the Euro moved above $1.27 gave the move a bit more weight.