Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Financials

 Financials are having trouble filling the gap, note the volume falling off.

 The 1 min 3 chart has a relative negative divergence, this is likely what is causing the lateral trade right now.

 The 2 min 3C chart has a more negative bias and is pretty close to leading negative.

 The 5 min chart is leading negative.

 Here's the 15 min chart, with a parabolic move yesterday in XLF setting a new intraday high since early August, remember parabolic moves almost always end with a parabolic reversal and reversals in trend almost always end with a head fake move, whether it be a price pattern breakout, a break above significant resistance of a new high, it's worth noting XLF could not hold that new intraday high and here you can see why, there was distribution in to the move a I would have suspected.

 Here's 2 likely head fakes, the first is a breakout from a bearish ascending wedge, this pulls the longs in as they see the bearish pattern as a failed pattern, that breakout was on Jan. 10th, then yesterday's intraday high in yellow. The white box is the area in which I have said many times, "This looks like a very dangerous area" however it would not surprise me if the market held roughly where it is until the F_O_M_C meeting is concluded tomorrow.

 The hourly chart has also been negative since the breakout from the wedge, giving more weight to my opinion that this area looks dangerous and like a bull trap of some sort. Look at the negative divergence in to yesterday's head fake move. A breakout to new highs in a healthy market should see follow through buying the next day, but it couldn't even hold those highs yesterday as I would have suspected just from the parabolic nature of the move.

Here's my custom "Buy/Sell" Demark inspired indicator (green=buy/orange=sell) and this s a daily chart, we have a significant period showing a large sell signal, this is another reason I believe this area in the market is exceptionally dangerous, like walking out on a thin ledge, but as VIX shows, traders just keep whistling past the graveyard.

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