Possible False Breakout Above the Neckline

This is something I was talking about with a member just last night, that we haven't seen any pops of false breakouts recently above the S&P's neckline which has been good resistance. Considering the strange character of the low volume overnight move and apparent lack of any real catalyst that makes sense, it's something to certainly consider, especially the way the IWM chart was looking in the early indications post.

The S&P over the last couple of months has an overall wedge-like appearance, which would be taken as bearish, however the breakout above the neckline and out of the wedge area would both be expected on a head fake move which most often precedes a reversal, in fact it's almost always the last event to occur before a reversal.