Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Volatility- VIX/VXX

As you are probably aware, lows in the VIX are associated with complacency and often market tops, the VIX and intraday VXX both have an inverse relationship to the market.

 The 10 min VXX is showing a strong leading positive divergence, a move up in the VXX would mean a move down in the market.

 That 10 min strength in the VXX is now flowing to the 15 min chart as it starts a leading positive divergence, suggesting the VXX is about to move higher, remember the market's inverse relationship.

 On an hourly chart, there's a long term relative positive divergence in place in the VXX as well.

 Here's the VIX on a daily chart making intraday new lows that go back to late July .

In the white box, this shows that area in late July in the S&P-500. The two yellow boxes represent 1 confirmed head fake above the S&P's neckline and today's move above the same.The long wick on today's price candle shows higher prices being rejected. I would think a breakout above the trendline would shoe a strong finish, but remember we got to this price point largely because of overnight action in ES on low volume in a strange advance (see earlier posts). As a matter of fact, that overnight advance was the price advance in the market today, intraday, the market added nothing to the low volume overnight action that caused the gap up today.

This is what I mean about the intraday market...
The area in the yellow box on this intraday chart of the SPY is all the market added to the overnight low volume melt up. A breakout above an important resistance level should close strong, it had a jump start from overnight, essentially there was no follow through the entire day.

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