Remember what I said about the close I was looking for in AAPL today? Well the closing candle is even better then it was earlier, a true Doji-Star which is a common reversal candle, especially when it gaps up. This pattern is very close to an "Evening Star Doji". I'm a little disappointed in the volume, it is high and that's good, but I was hoping for volume like we saw on the 15th (red), however it may be enough.
Intraday you can see where a lot of the volume came from on a break in the afternoon, but break of what?
As usual, the 50-bar 5 min moving average was the trigger, we saw a closing bounce in to that average that is now intraday resistance. The very last candle of the day shows that resistance as the upper wick crossed above the average, but couldn't hold.
I won't update all the chart because you have seen them so many times, but the downside momentum in the 2 min chart is worth seeing. Note the end of day bounce was off support which was yesterday's close, this is not uncommon and isn't all that bullish, it's just part of the process.
The 5 min chart's momentum in leading negative is impressive.
XLK-Technology...
In the red bow we have a "tweezers top" which is also likely churning as the volume was high and there was no price appreciation. The closing volume I would think was partly due to AAPL.
This is my custom "buy/sell" indicator, the longer the timeframe, the more serious the signal, this is a monthly chart. We haven't had a sell signal since 2007 and you know what happened after that, well we have a sell signal now.
MoneyStream not only called the 2011 top, but has remained leading negative through this entire rally, the same signals we are seeing in 3C just about everywhere we look. If it was in 1 average I might discount it, but in all of them and in major market stocks, it's hard to believe, but hard to discount. The implications of such a protracted and deep divergence are beyond anything I can imagine as I have never seen such a drastic negative divergence.
XLK 2 min shows some problems around the 15th like AAPL, but of note is the downside leading negative momentum of the last 2 days.
Even more impressive is the momentum in the 15 min chart, the divergence picked up steam as XLK hit intraday highs.
This 30 min leading move is today alone, this rarely happens and for it to happen, there's usually immense distribution.
We'll have to see if AAPL now puts in a confirmation candle for the reversal set up (sometimes there are 2 or 3 dojis stars in a row before a confirmation candle).
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