Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Trade Idea-FXP (Long)

This is a VERY speculative idea, so I would treat it as such if you like it. If I'm not mistaken, China reports PMI tomorrow (I need to double check, but pretty sure).

FXP is an inverse ETF which is an UltraShort the China 25.

 This is the FXP 60 min chart, I recently covered FXP and some changes in character that I like, this is certainly one of them.

 The 5 min chart is interesting as FXP was sent to a shakeout low and showed a positive divergence there-more on that in a minute.

 Here's the daily 3C, although some other versions show a strong positive divergence.

 The daily Bollinger Bands show FXP is likely to make a highly directional move, the Chinese PMI could be the catalyst.

 Daily Money Stream looks constructive and stochastics (long version) have been pinned, but are crossing up.

 Here's the consolidation that we see the 60 min positive divergence, note today broke below which looks to be a small shakeout.

This is that shakeout intraday so it did hit some orders and it has regained support.

I would look at this as a short term trade and speculative, if it develops in to something larger, then we cross that bridge at that time. My idea is to take a small options position, maybe March $22 Calls.

Remember, this is speculative.

No comments: