The Close and Predictability of Traders

I keep mentioning the predictability of traders not to point out something interesting, but to help give you an edge. Wall Street knows how predictable technical traders are and they use that against them, so if you understand what traders will do, where they will place their stop, what will cause them to buy/sell/short/cover, then you have a good idea of how Wall Street will react.

 This is the SPY vs the Euro (red) as you can see, the Euro making a lower high was also the top of today's intraday trade and with the 3C divegences in place, it was very unlikely the market could keep up momentum and more likely it would start to sell of a bit into the close. As mentioned earlier, today did nothing of technical importance other then fill a gap.

 The same chart as above, just for the entire day. Again, the Euro failed to make a higher high this a.m.  and the market reached an intraday high. When the Euro started trending up again, it boosted the market, when the Euro failed to make a higher high, that was the top for the market today and it roughly followed the Euro lower, although on an arbitrage basis, the market is a bit over-valued.

 Here's the trend line I showed you earlier, with no more momentum, that support was broken.

 As far as obvious goes, look at the break of the trendline (the two larger down candles) and then resistance at the trend line, this is what I mean by obvious. At the very least, you should see that you shouldn't place stops at these obvious levels.

The 50 bar m.a. on a 5 min chart, this is as old as the concept of day trading itself and look at volume when the moving average is broken-a lot of stops triggered.

I'm updating now, I'll be checking internals, industry groups, the C&Ds and anything else I can find of interest.