Monday, February 13, 2012

Early Sector Movement...

While the averages continue the trend of filling all gaps, there has been some early and interesting sector rotation.


Most notably is Tech which has been strong for weeks and just started showing cracks on Friday, XLK is underperforming the SPX notably. Also underperforming is Energy. Financials are the one risk on group that are doing well thus far today, but even some defensive sectors like Industrials are falling off, while the more defensive plays like Staples, Healthcare, and recently Utilities are coming in to rotation.

I suspect Energy (+.29%) is falling off in part due to USO, but more broadly, the FX sensitive Energy and Materials are seeing a decline in relative performance due to the EUR/USD as the original excitement in the Euro on last night's FX open for the week starts to fade as the reality sets in that the vote was a step, not a solution and there are many more hurdles for Greece. No one even knows for sure what the German end game is, I suspect it will be to make terms so demeaning that Greece cannot accept them, as mentioned earlier, giving Germany a face-saving escape from what they have called a , "Bottomless pit" as recently as today.

Here's the Euro since FX trade opened yesterday.
The Euro opened up after the Greek vote went through, but has since fallen off below its opening levels for the start of the week and approaching the next support level.

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