Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Durable Goods Miss Sends ES Down 4 Points in 15 Mins

There was a 3C negative divergence any way, I figured we'd see a gap up and a move down as intraday volatility seem to be the game for the HFT, but the Durable Goods report just gave them a day's worth of movement in 15 minutes.


Released On 2/28/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change3.0 %-0.7 %-2.1 % to 0.5 %-4.0 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change0.3 %-1.5 % to 1.4 %
Ex-transportation - M/M2.1 %-3.2 %


This is a pretty bad miss, prior was 3.0% with consensus of a negative at .7%, the actual was -4.0% which is -1.9 worse then the worst consensus downside range. It's even worse considering the prior 3.0 was revised to 3.2, so we just saw a -7.2% drop in durable goods. This is not only the lowest number since early 2009, it's the biggest m/m drop since the same.

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