Wednesday, February 1, 2012

GLD Update

GLD is now at the Apex of the Triangle, this is the typical move seen after a top breaks "Kissing the channel, Top, Resistance, etc Goodbye".


 The 150-day moving average continues to be a key level GLD traders are focusing on, just look at the size of the candle and volume on the move above the average, which historically over the last several years has held on every test and has been a great buying area. However volume suggests a consolidation, the only problem is the slant of the consolidation is all wrong.

 GLD intraday is not performing well.

 In the shirt term we can see what looks like a move down coming in GLD

Longer term since GLD bottomed in December, there is nearly a complete cycle from accumulation, to confirmation and now distribution.

I'm not opposed to gold long or short, but if GLD can't break above the apex of the triangle (and it doesn't look like it will), it will not be able to break the intermediate trend which is still bearish. For some time we have watched thus top develop, the question really is whether it is a bubble or an intermediate top .

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