Wednesday, February 1, 2012

SLV UPDATE

It's time to pay attention to SLV especially if you have a long position.

 As of the last update, I suspect JPM is still holding a large SLV short inherited from the Bear Stearns take over, I also suspect their line in the sand is in the $33-$34 area.

 The white boxes show normal, healthy pullbacks (if you can see the red trendlines within the boxes, you'll see each slants away from the uptrend as they should, that is not what is happening now.

 Recently higher prices have been rejected and hard.

 The 5 min chart went from confirmation to a negative divergence.

 The 15 min chart is now leading at a new low

 The 30 min chart has a negative as well

 And the 60 min went from confirmation to a negative stance. That's nearly every time frame.

 For a wider stop, the Trend Channel will continue to rise and I suspect SLV would be stopped out around $31.50, the benefit of a wider stop is to allow for the possibility of a consolidation, however thus far the price pattern of the last few days doesn't appear to be a consolidation.

For a tighter stop, simply use the 60 min chart's trend line. You can see volume has dropped recently and RSI is also negative.

I'm not suggesting that the position needs to be closed right now, but I would certainly have trailing stops in place.

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