ISM Misses

Yesterday it was Chicago PMI, today Manufacturing ISM, for the proponents of US decoupling vs lagging, the data since GDP hasn't been on their side.

ISM came in at 54.1 vs consensus of 54.5 - 56.

Again, like the Chicago PMI, the employment index declined, which doesn't bode well for Friday's NFP. Interestingly pricing pressure is picking up again, which means tighter margins which after 3 years of fat trimming will likely manifest in employment.

Services ISM comes in this Friday at 10 a.m., however the NFP will be out at 8:30 so it won't shed any light on Non-Farm Payrolls.

The very volatile ADP employment report also came out earlier today, ADP tends to miss the NFP and tends to be more optimistic then the NFP print. However today's print was a rare downside miss at 170k vs consensus at 182k and down from the December 325k print which was revised to 292k (you see what I mean about overly optimistic?).