Tuesday, February 14, 2012

JPM Changes in Character

 It was just a few days ago I pointed out that JPM put in the first Bearish Engulfing candle since Dec. 6th 2010 a definitive change in character. This is what a normal wedge looks like these days, nothing like what you see in a technical analysis textbook. They head fake, they move laterally, they do everything except what T.A. books teach you as Wall St. uses Technical Analysis against you.

 The 30 min 3C chart of JPM-it' no coincidence that this looks so much like the SPY 30 min chart, even though they are two unrelated equities, heck, one is an ETF! Yet they look the same, that is why 3C stands for "Compare, compare, compare".

 The 5 min chart after the wedge breaks out, exactly what TA says it shouldn't do, which draws in buyers on what they believe is a failed pattern. The Bearish Engulfing candle trapped 4 days of longs itself, today's move traps something closer to 2 weeks of longs at a loss and this is why they run these head fakes.

 A negative divergence on the breakout and subsequent formation of a bearish engulfing candle in white and a leading negative divergence now.

The 2 min chart shows the same, that open that created the bearish engulfing pattern was under distribution since it started and was the highest move since last August.

Yes, I think JPM is a short candidate.

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