Volume dropped off on the NYSE to new lows for a non-holiday trading day that stretch beyond a decade and ES volume just missed multi-year new lows and was off by 30% of its 50-day moving average of volume.
The Cats and Dogs were the leaders again yesterday (which is usually telling us something in and of itself as the C&D trades tend to pop at the end of a bull run. The top 15 highest percent gainers were all Cats and Dogs and 19 of the 25 highest percent gainers were all Cats and Dogs. I didn't look through the usual 150 other then to skim through and saw a majority of gainers were again, Cats and Dogs.
The Dominant Price Volume Relationship should come as no surprise...
At just about 50% in all of the major averages, Price Up / Volume Down was the winner, which is also the most bearish of the 4 possible relations and even more so making a 10+ year low in volume.
Even the top performing Sub-Industry groups were generally recent under-performers, including:
Consumer Services, Paper and Paper Products, Drug Delivery, Pollution and Treatment Control, Metal Fabrication, Drug Related Products, REIT Hotel/Motel, Small Tools and Accessories, Beverage and Brewers and Diagnostic Substances.
Credit underperformed as did risk assets, there was simply nothing to get excited about in the internals. Crude trade was interesting on the CME halt, but that was about it.
As for overnight news, nothing too surprising there either:
As expected and as Draghi has repeated twice, the last time just last week, the ECB will not take losses on their Greek bonds, which means the Private Creditor losses will be even bigger, which has a lot of ramifications for sovereign debt, depending on whether Greece can close the sale without CACs. Draghi seems to be the only EU figure that says what he means and means what he says. There is a sense that the Greek PSI deal will not get done or is not credible.
Schaeuble, repeated again that a Greek default will not be as bad as it would have been a year ago, he's clearly focused on fixing the problem with Greece, just not to Greece's benefit.
On the eco-news, European Industrial output declined 1.1% with Germany being a leading contributor to the decline at a 2.7% decline after November's .3% decline (remember that the EU benefits Germany more then any other country in that they have a free trade zone). EU troubles are having a clear impact on the German Production dynamo. Perhaps Germany should be punished for such a nasty decline, after all, it was WORSE then Greece's at 2.4%! Also in the data, employers are cutting jobs 3 time faster then in 2011. Recession? I think the question is when if it is not already on now?
Greek Q4 GDP data came in at a disappointing -7% making this a 4th consecutive year of a worsening recession. The unemployment rate is over 20%, it should be noted Spain's UE rate is 23%. In other word, there are a lot of potential rioters available.
After Spain was cut by two notches by Moody's last night, there's news that the EU intends on "Punishing Spain" for its deficits and inaction. Perhaps Germany is looking to reshape the EU?
In the US, Retail Sales Miss, this makes 3 months in a row coming in at .4% on consensus of .8% and that on a downward revision (formerly .1% revised to 0%). Take away the seasonal adjustment and retail sales saw their largest 1 month decline EVER! The last time Retail Sales missed 3 months in a row, was in 2008, not a great vintage for the market. Remember AEO and other retailers I brought up as trade ideas, saying, "There's something wrong in the sector" just last week.
The Euro overnight looked horrible a did ES, but we'll get to updated charts of those in a moment.
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