This is a longer term update with more charts so I have only completed it for the SPY/SPX because if I captured all of the same charts for the other 3 averages, you'd have 28 charts and I wouldn't be able to get it done before the close.
The SPY 2 min chart today is in line or showing confirmation of the move down, this confirmation is something we have rarely seen on the moves up, which would indicate that the smart money has been using the rally to sell/sell short in to. Price is always deceiving and Wall Street is always working far in advance. The entirety of these charts are "part" of the reason I believe this is a bear market rally and they are dangerous. Again, if everyone knows it, it's not worth knowing, the price chart alone is something everyone knows and there's no edge to knowing what everyone else knows.
SPY 2 min longer term has really ben negative since last Thursday and is now leading negative for at least the 7 days seen on this chart and likely many more.
The 5 min chart shows confirmation up, confirmation down.
The 10 min chart also went very negative last Thursday, it showed some accumulation (for the gap fill yesterday) late Friday, it has been negative ever since and it too is leading negative at a new low as far back as my history will show, 7 days.
The 30 min chart is where the real trouble is and has been, this is why I have thought (along with other indications) that we are seeing a bear market rally that will end badly. When you see how negative this chart is, it may seem out of place or unbelievable, but consider the Credit/Risk charts that show equally as bad or worse dislocations between the market and the EUR/USD, commodities, rates, and Credit. When you put them altogether, this chart is much more believable as we have confirmation from wildly unrelated indicators.
Finally, a long term picture of the SPX showing the 2007/2008 top, 3C went positive before the market at the 2009 bottom and called accumulation. 3C stayed mostly in line until QE2 when averages were artificially manipulated higher, thus the deep negative divergence as once again, QE2 created an illusion of real strength, but in reality it was just manipulation of the market. Presently, the depth of the daily divergence is horrible, worse then most every single top I've studies over the last century, QE2 is mostly to thank for creating higher market prices with no underlying support or strength. In my opinion and as we saw with consecutive months of insider selling that was more lopsided then any other time in the history of the market, QE2 was a gift to Wall Street from the F_E_D, it did nothing for the economy except squeeze margins in every industry, arguably it did more harm then good, except for the bankers on Wall Street and the CEOs who were able to sell their stock at high prices, thus the F_E_D's gift to Wall Street as you cannot distinguish between politicians and Wall Street, look at how many former Goldman Sach's employees serve in the F_E_D and the White House. Look at Greece where a technocrat was NOT elected, but placed in power by the Troika to get Greece to go along, and where did he come from? Goldman Sachs.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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