Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Swing Layout Progress

Some of you have already downloaded my initial Swing Layout with the colored candlesticks which denote long/short entries and exits as well as what is noise within the trend.

I'm still working on the chart and making some progress with the addition of two new indicators, a volatility stop and my Trend Channel which is another form of volatility stop. Furthermore, there will be underlying conditions to define a high probability market in terms of direction and in terms of the stocks that show the most promise as swing candidates according to how long their swings last and how often they give good signals, when completed, the idea will be that a watchlist can be created with first, the best swing stocks as represented by a measure of their "swing-ability" and then it can be sorted to highlight both long and short candidates that are giving signals or close to it.

Here are the stop components thus far, hopefully later tonight I'll have an updated layout you can download, remember these are for members only.

 First the volatility stop in pink, lets call that fuschia. In this case there needs to be a set up first (a pullback that creates an overbought/oversold condition), the candles still represent the entry as you can see a short trade to the left in the red box on a random symbol, however the stop becomes the volatility indicator which would have stopped the trade out at the first noise candle (yellow arrow), rather then wait for the higher stop out two days later. The next long trade in the green box is also stopped out by the volatility indicator on a noise candle (yellow arrow) rather then the swing method red candle that appeared a day later at a lower level. Last, the long trade in white would not have been stopped out by either of the two red candles as the volatility indicator is the stop, this keeps you in the long trade.


 Using my Trend Channel, which represents a set standard deviation to create the channel, which is based on each stock's individual volatility, the entry system is the same, although you are trading with the trend of the channel. The first short swing trade to the left enters on the first red candle, but rather then wait for the green candle stop out, the stop would come at the first white noise candle BELOW the Trend Channel, as it is making a move that is unusually volatile, beyond the channel's already set standard deviation, this allows maximum profits on shorter trades with less opportunity cost.

Finally as mentioned, this can be used on any time frame, for longer term trades, this weekly chart would have slightly different rules, the entry would still be long on the first green candle, but in this case the stop would function as the Trend Channel stop normally does and all subsequent swing candle signals would be ignored, only a break of the Trend Channel would force an exit of the trade, which will allow you to hold longer term positions and trends.

I'll be working on it more after hours, when it is available, I'll let you know.

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