It was just yesterday in this post I pointed out the late day grab for protection that has been going on the last several days, being that smart money most often trades the close, it was a little change in character that was worth noting and keeping an eye on, today that led to a green day in treasuries...
Flight to safety in the last half of the day the last 3 days and a gap and trend higher today.
Treasuries or TLT have been choppy lately, however if the start of accumulation here is an indication, it would suggest a move quite a bit higher (Relative to the Beta of TLT)-I think I posted this chart yesterday.
Here's the 15 min chart, I didn't mark it at all. I wanted you to see how 3C has been responding in line with price and how over the last few days that changed and ultimately led to today's reversal.
I'm not sure what the end game is here, I had a meeting last night with a financial firm and we were discussing long only options and where money would likely go in a post Greek default, treasuries came up in the discussion, however I'm not convinced that they would be an asset class in which investors sought out big gains, I'm more of the opinion that they would be a hiding place yo get capital out of the financial system.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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