Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Update

 The DIA 5 min chart, right now we can't call this much more then a technical shakeout looking at this objectively, but as I have used the phrase "Picking up lose change in front of a steam roller", it will be very difficult to differentiate moves that look like a simple shakeout like this and the big one that just doesn't comeback. The underlying action has made the market like an ever thinning ledge, in other words, the environment for that day that just doesn't come back is there so it's not like we can look to that for a clue, it's been bad for a while.

 DIA 1 min is in line with price

 As is the 2 min

 The 5 min will take a little longer to catch up to a move that was that fast.

 The IWM 5 min chart has also broken below support

 The 1 min 3C chart is in perfect confirmation

 As is the 2 min, but there's still potential for a relative positive divergence to form at this exact stage.

 The Q's holding above support is really the market's saving grace at this moment. Dow Theory does matter, whether it's long term like I illustrated earlier or short term.

 QQQ 1 min is in line, confirming the price trend.

 So is the 2 min.

 SPY 5 min

 Surprisingly the SPY 1 min chart is a bit stronger then the price action, but...

The longer 5 min chart is more negative.

The IWM is at a loss of .84%, in the last several months, the market has not been able to hold losses this big (as moves have been relatively small) this early in the day. If the market can hold this loss and add to it, we have a definitive change in character and the downside risk becomes much more grave, but you know what I've been expecting, all the pieces are in place, it's just a matter of time. However until then, we have to assume that the market will continue the trend of not letting big early losses stand until the trend ends and we will have a key piece of the timing puzzle when that happens.

No comments: