AIG Trade Idea Follow Up

AIG was an idea from 2/24  (short)

 AIG came out with earnings and the price action that followed was very reminiscent of AMAT which I'm still bearish on.


 Here's AMAT, from what I recall earnings were good in after hours and AMAT gapped up, but the conference call was the next day during market hours and I believe guidance wasn't good, so AMAT gave back all of that big gap up and then some.

 AIG is very similar, on my custom crossover screen (to prevent false crossover signals), AIG is very close to triggering a sell/short signal.

 The longer term charts didn't look good going in to earnings and still don't look good, they have actually deteriorated.

 However there's 1 chart that suggests AIG may bounce similar to what AMAT is doing now, the 15 min. Ultimately the 30/60 mi carry more weight, but positioning is everything.

Here's AIG in my Trend Channel on a daily chart, the move in yellow alone as well as the previous large green candle outside of the channel suggested something was brewing. As you can see by the red trendline, AIG has spent 6 days just barely above a sell/short signal for the Trend Channel. There's two potential plays; 1) based on the 15 min positive divergence, a bounce somewhere in the white area which is an open gap, that would also put an entry very close to the Trend Channel stop for a short position so the risk would be fairly small. The second entry and this is probably more market dependent, would be a break below the trend channel on a closing basis, the area would be around $28.05, although I'd prefer to see a solid break of the channel.  Maybe set some real time alerts for both options, I will as well.