Thursday, March 15, 2012

WMT Update

 On this daily chart of WMT you can see a bear flag at the red trendlines (hopefully you can see the trendlines, if any one has trouble seeing them let me know and I'll change the color-you can always click on the chart for a larger view as well), in this trade idea, we were specifically looking for a breakout above the bear flag as technical analysis is so manipulated, the days of bear flags just breaking down without a shakeout first are long gone. We have sen that shakeout move since. The question is now of tactical entry.

 While there are several options depending on your trading style, a break back inside the flag was one option, a break below support of the flag was a second option, but we are so close to a natural tight stop, it almost seems a waste to wait for such declines. WMT did break the "shakeout" uptrend line today in the red box, however I have another option...

 My Trend Channel in blue is on a 60 min chart, it has held the entire shakeout move, a move below the Trend Channel at the white trend line would be a nice compromise, it would also allow you a pretty tight stop just above the recent highs at the yellow trend line.

 The hourly chart still looks great with the shakeout showing a negative divergence.

The 15 min chart shows the same, note the flag was in confirmation until the upside shakeout, that's where it went negative. Traditional technical traders will short a bear flag, a breakout above the bear flag will trigger their stops causing them to buy to cover, that buying allows Wall Street to sell short in to the buy to cover orders, and thus the reason you see a negative divergence at the shakeout.

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