Friday, March 16, 2012

APKT Follow Up

Late yesterday I featured APKT as a trade idea (short term long position)

Thus far (after the volatile morning trade) it's off to a good start... Up +2.5% Today and more since the idea yesterday. While I expect it to be a shorter term trade, whatever the market gives is what I want to take so lets look at some potential stops and remember you can always phase out of the trade.

 Here's the triangle on the intraday chart, I said it would likely see a shakeout and it saw 3, one above yesterday, 1 below yesterday and 1 below today, this is why I ignore morning trade for the most part, its noisy and has little to do with the trend and more to do with taking advantage of pre-market orders- Look at AAPL right now, remember all that sell side volume on the open and I said it is likely that will be faded, that's what AAPL is doing right now.

 Yesterday's 3C showing the triangle getting ready to breakout on accumulation. Trade today has been in line with price.

 One potential tight stop is a solid break below the blue 22 bar moving average on a 1 min chart, but this should only be used early in the day, as the 5 min chart and moving average catch up, I would switch to a wider 5 min and as the 10/15 min catch up (providing we are still in the trade), I would consecutively add wider stops.

 After this morning's shakeout, the 1 min trend channel is holding the trend, this will guarantee a profit, but is a bit too tight for my taste, although if you are using options and have a decent profit you may want to protect it.

 The 5 min version is wider around $27.70 right now, it will continue to move higher and guarantees at least a marginally profitable trade.

 I prefer the 5 min first, and then move to the 15 min which at this point guarantees at least a break even/slightly profitable trade, but if there's a longer trend, this will allow for pullbacks.


Ultimately if APKT cooperates, I want to move to the 60 min trend channel which held the downtrend very well, right now this would be a slight loss and thus I wouldn't use it yet, but as it catches up, I would like to get to this timeframe for a trailing stop. Remember you can mix and match/phase out of the trade as well. It all depends on what type of position you took and what your risk tolerance is.



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