Here's ES intraday today, you can make out a triangle in ES price on the 1 min
Here's the ES 5 min
And the 30 min
ES 4 hour
ES weekly
As an example of the negative divergences in the market averages that have been persistent (in ES as well as you can see), this is a breadth indicator I featured the other night, in green it shows the percentage of stocks that are 1 standard deviation ABOVE their 40 day moving average, these are strong momentum stocks, 2 channels above are really strong momentum stocks-all have fallen substantially.
As for 1 standard deviation above the 40 day moving average, the percentage went from nearly 80% of all NYSE component stocks (well over 4000 stocks) to almost cut in half to 44%.
As an example, that percentage can't fall without the stocks falling as well, this is the first chart I picked so it's not cherry picked and it is certainly not been 1 standard deviation above the 40 day moving average, this would just be a stock that WAS above its 40 day moving average, the point is, for that percentage above to be cut nearly in half, nearly half of the NYSE stocks would look something like this, moving down and under their averages. They can't be strong and making new highs with the market if they are below the moving average they were formerly above earlier in the rally.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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