Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Credit/Risk Assets and Sector Rotation

 Commodities continue to lose ground vs the SPX today...

 This is commodities vs the Euro (green), you can see they are more in line with the Euro, so the market essentially doesn't have the Euro supporting it.

 Earlier today Yields were in line with the market, in line with a market bounce, since they have deteriorated consistently and the 12-1 p.m. area is where it really started. This would seem to indicate AAPL as the culprit, but I think there's more to it then that given the Euro's performance.

 Euro vs SPX

 High Yield Corporate Credit still hasn't budged in support of a bounce, which I didn't think it would being I expected the bounce to be a hollow shell and not a real risk move, more of a tactical set up for a market reversal. These Credit traders are generally better informed then equity traders, thus the saying "Credit leads, equities follow".

 XLE was at least somewhat in line with the SPX earlier, it is losing ground as well, no doubt EUR/USD connected.

 Financials remain in line with the SPX.

 Tech continues to lose ground.

Earlier today the sector rotation was what we'd expect to see for a market bounce, the defensive sectors were on the decline, the risk sectors were advancing. Recently, since noon, that has started to reverse and the market is moving to a more defensive posture with Utilities, Healthcare & Staples seeing better relative performance. On the decline, Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials and Technology.

There seems to be a subtle, but definitive change in the character of the tone of the market.

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