Monday, March 19, 2012

FXP Update

The last FXP update was March 16th... This looked like a good place to enter FXP again.


 FXP came out of a bullish descending wedge and unlike Edwards and McGee's version of what should happen next, what happened next is the same thing we've been seeing for the past year +, instead of a breakout from the wedge they form lateral bases of for ascending wedges lateral tops usually, after they put in a false breakout. At the green arrow we had our first FXP trade, at the yellow arrow a caution on that trade and the red arrow short term 3C divergences suggesting a pullback which would usually be to the 10/22 day average, but we had an unfilled gap in the orange box, so any trades entered on the orange arrow update were to have wide enough stops to accommodate a pullback to fill that gap which happened. Last week was the latest FXP trade Idea long on the 16th as FXP was under resistance but building a good 3C positive divergence.

 With a +3.37% gain today, FXP does have some correlation to the market and has dipped a bit on the intraday market move from the Greek CDS auction. I still like FXP here, although I prefer to trade it as we have been doing.

Here's the 60 min chart coming out of the wedge and in to the base with a leading positive divergence. Although I think longer term traders could hold FXP if they can ride out the pullbacks, as I mentioned, I prefer trading it and it looks like we'll have plenty of upside trades based on this 60 min chart.

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