Monday, March 19, 2012

LULU Chart Request...

 While not a broadening top, thi is another example of the 5 points of contact and either bullish price action like we see here in which after 5 points of contact with the trend lines, the next move fell short of hitting the lower trend line, LULU started it's bull run from there with a break away gap in the yellow box. Pretty much reverse the rules for bearish patterns, 5 points of contact and a failure to meet the upper trend line.

 The 1 day Trend Channel has held the entire LULU breakout with the current stop out and probable trend reversal now around the $70 area.

 Recent trade has been volatile in LULU, we see this often near reversals or tops. I have doubts that LULU would see a 'v' shaped reversal and would likely form some sort of lateral top before making any very large moves down. However the recent breakout day on big volume had no follow through and Friday's close was a bearish engulfing candle on large volume. If I was long LULU, I'd be considering taking some profits and tightening stops.

 The 60 min chart is starting to show some deterioration, remember that the shorter timeframe charts flow in to the longer term timeframes.

 The 30 min showed decent confirmation on the move up at the green arrows and a positive divergence on the break lower. Recently it is looking a more negative and this 15 min chart is flowing in to the longer charts.

 The 5 min which would flow in to the 15 looks a bit worse locally, you can see the breakdown on the 6th and a positive divergence there, but it wasn't a very big positive divergence and I wouldn't expect it to support much more in LULU without another larger divergence forming and that isn't looking likely right now.

Intraday you can see the negative divergence Wednesday. However on an intraday basis, as of now LULU is in line with price.
Again, I wouldn't be initiating longs in  LULU here and if I was already long I would consider taking some profits. A break below the Trend Channel and I would be out of LULU. I probably wouldn't be shorting LULU either until that daily trend channel is broken.

That gap LULU left open is a liability as the market has been filling just about every gap. I don't think LULU would make it there on a swing trade until it produced some more lateral chop.

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