Overnight

Yesterday's movement came from lower than avg. volume (NYSE 730 mln, vs. 805 mln avg; Nasdaq 1610 mln, vs. 1726 mln avg), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1232/1749 Nasdaq 944/1582), but not by the sizable margin that would crete an oversold condition.


The same goes for the P/V relationship which was dominant in all 4 averages, Price Down/Volume Down, this is the most common relationship in a bear market and has the least implications of the 4 relationships moving forward. In an extended downtrend, it would tell you that the trend is not oversold.


As mentioned during trading hours, the VIX/VXX were both notably higher today.

 VIX biggest 1 day move since March 6th

 VXX biggest 1 day move since November!

VXX intraday



You saw AApL's late day performance, now take a look at another market bellwether, GOOG

This is a nearly parabolic move today.

The risk assets that have been warning the past 2 days as well as the last few weeks look like this

 The SPX caught up with commodities intraday downside.

 Within th recent trend though, the SPX is still overvalued by a wide margin as commodities remain divergent.

 Yields just kept pushing lower all day, the SPX is still severely divergent here.

 And the larger trend.

 $AUD kept leaking lower at a faster pace then the SPX, leading negative.

 And the recent trend

 I mentioned early in the day sector rotation was split between risk assets and defensive, with financials leaking lower, financials kept moving lower in to the close along with energy broadly, Basic Materials and notably the risk on Discretionary sector. Defensive Utilities and Healthcare moved higher, although HC may have something to do with Obama-Care in court.

As I laid out in my original head fake thesis, Treasuries would pick up steam as a safe haven asset, we saw that across the complex with TLT higher.


Here's CONTEXT for ES

ES caught up on the downside with the severe divergence between the model and ES, but since the model has moved lower again leaving ES overvalued.

And ES tonight at 5:16 a.m. (this morning...)

The unusually long leading negative divergence in ES that has persisted for two day, and I believe this is a new low that is out of scale, but would actually be much, much lower, has started to take ES down, even through the EU open. ES is now hitting overnight lows at $106.33 taking out the intraday lows during normal market hours.

Today's main event, Durable Goods at 8:30 a.m.

It should be an interesting day