Tuesday, April 10, 2012

AMZN Update

AMZN looks like it is starting to find some intraday accumulation on the 1 min chart. The Puts in the options model portfolio are for May so I think I'll leave those in place.

 AMZN 1 min positive. The SPY positive divergence is holding up, so I'd expect an intraday bounce, probably shortly after Europe closes. The DIA has a decent positive divergence on intraday charts as well, the Q's and the IWM are both in relative positive divergences, Q's being stronger than the IWM at this point.

AMZN was always suspected to be a head fake trade, even before it actually broke above resistance, we expected the move. After the break through resistance (sucking longs in), we saw a confirmed candlestick reversal and 3C distribution throughout the breakout, confirming the head fake nature of the move. Since AMZN has broken back below the breakout point. Since AMZN is further along in the head fake move (already confirmed), it is in a very dangerous spot as the head fake move is one of the last things seen before a reversal to the downside (in this case). Thus I'll keep the puts in place.

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