Tuesday, April 10, 2012

SPY Divergence NOW

As mentioned, the market is moving exceptionally fast, this is part of what to expect as the market is trying to shakeout traders in every direction and keep everyone guessing.

Since the last post the SPY 1 min divergence is now leading positive, this is how fast the market is moving, I haven't seen it move this fast since last year, ironically around July.

There is one consistent theme in the underlying trade, that is any price strength seems to be sold in to, that can be straight selling or short selling. You can see that trend here...

All of the selling in to strength is gaining 3C downside momentum, watch how the red arrows from left to right each get deeper and now we have an accruement of distribution on this 15 min chart which is hitting new leading lows that are lower then any point this year and well in to last year.

Getting rid of some of the noise from the volatility, you can see the trend changing.
Watching a 10-day moving average of the SPX, you can see how it easily held the uptrend and NEVER went more then briefly lateral, prices have moved below the average and more importantly is the direction of the average itself, down.

Later I'll try to show you how the market is trying to keep things confusing with intraday trade and short bounces, but the underlying trade on the 15 min chart is pretty clear as to what is happening. In the meantime, you can either be nimble and take decent profits quickly or you can build a position and ride out the volatility. I prefer to try to stay nimble here as the signals are pretty clean, but at the same time I'm maintaining some longer term exposure. Like I said yesterday, you never know exactly when that crack comes.

No comments: