I believe it was yesterday when I was talking about April 10th when the SPX broke the 50-ay moving average. Because of the market's behavior and the predictability of that behavior, before we even had our first sign of a positive divergence , expectations were laid out of a bounce off those lows and what the bounce would do and why. The bottom line could b paraphrased as, 'There's no point to run a bounce/volatility shakeout if it does not knock shorts out and get longs in the market, setting them up in a bull trap. To do this, serious levels of resistance would need to be taken out". I believe it was yesterday I said I thought the SPX still had enough in the tank to take out $1400 and that's a key level psychologically which helps a lot in achieving the goal of running the volatility shakeout cycle. Add to that increasing volatility and the swings become much bigger.
The SPX has done it, taken out $1400 and thus far although it is starting to get a little scary with the parabolic moves, the underlying conditions are thus far holding fairly well although that may change VERY fast.
Not only has major resistance been taken out as well as that recent consolidation area in early April, but the centennial mark of $1400 has been hit.
The moves, especially today's even though it is not as large, it has happened very quickly, are getting very parabolic, this is caused by the increased volatility and the market doing what it set out to do, flip-flop emotions-get the shorts very scared and the bulls very excited.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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