Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Tomorrow's events...

Today was exceptionally light on the economic calendar, tomorrow won't be the same.

In Europe we have 10 year French and Spanish Auctions, they fall outside of the 3 year LTRO window and they are not expected to go well, however it wouldn't be the first time the ECB has found a way to manipulate the auctions and right now the ECB really needs Spain to come in half way decent.

Here's the economic Calendar for the US.

Today was VERY light, tomorrow we have Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, the Philly F_E_D Survey and Leading Indicators. The trend in US economic data has been bad, sticking with the trend, I would have to guess the data comes in poorly, I would also guess the Spanish Auction comes in poorly, which could very well set up a volatile and nasty open.

We can't completely ignore what the SPY April options expiration data is telling us, it suggests SPY $140 for a close Friday. So is it possible we see a horrible day tomorrow and a huge day Friday?

I think this will answer that question...

I'm not putting odds on it, but yes, from the recent volatility it is absolutely possible. I still don't want to be long the market, but I just want to give you an idea of what is possible based on what we know right now.

I'm going to try to get 1 more market update out before the close.



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