Update of the risk layout...

I'm not going to waste time with charts, you have an idea of what they look like.

High Yield Corp. Credit is selling roughly in line with the market, it isn't diverging badly locally, although on a longer term basis it has a large negative divergence vs the SPX.

The Dollar is broadly supportive this afternoon of risk trade, we'll have to see if the SPX takes advantage of this bit of weakness in the dollar to move higher on a legacy arbitrage basis, even if the market does take advantage of this disconnect (weaker dollar offering the market some upside potential), judging by the market update and the 3C charts, nothing is going to get better and I would continue to look to sell in to strength or rather short in to strength.

Actually just as I wrote that paragraph, I see the SPX is moving up and taking advantage of the dollar weakness, this is NOT on any 3C support.

The $AUD is leading the SPX lower, it is a good leading indicator and it has diverged negatively from the SPX, these are the signs we have been looking for to call the end of the bounce.

Yields are also leading negatively vs the SPX, another decent leading indicator and another divergence we expected to see to help call the end of the bounce.

The move up intraday in the SPX that is happening a I write this is being led by Tech, financials are not showing the same momentum that tech is on a relative basis, financials continue to be out, tech continues to be in. GS is a short play I was meaning to look in to closer, but for quick leveraged ETF coverage, FAZ or SKF would give you short exposure to financials.

High Yield Credit is flat on the day, slightly down, however since yesterday's bounce it has a very large negative divergence, again what we want to see.

Commodities thus far are not moving with the SPX even though the dollar is weaker, we'll see if they take advantage of the weakness.

All in all, we are now seeing the clearer signals that suggest the bounce is in its last stages.

The options expiration pin at $140 would be an absolute gift, I hope we can get there. All of the underlying indicators are now pointing to the negative divergences that we look for to identify the end of the bounce.

Here is context for ES, I warned it would flip from being supportive to going negative, it is getting much worse.