Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Dr. Copper-FCX Update

 FCX has something similar to a H&S top, although the preceding trend isn't correct for a textbook H&S. In ant case, the market trend has been an important break of support is typically followed by a volatility shakeout, yesterday and today support was broken in FCX.


 As for Copper's ability to predict the market, here's FCX compared to the SPY, you can see they were in line until the market top started forming in March, FCX/Copper dropped badly which is in line with out macro view of the market. The question still remains what the short term direction will be-one more bounce?

 FCX 1 min went positive yesterday and remained in positive position today on the gap down.

 2 min has a decent positive trend going.

 The 3 min is in confirmation

 The 5 min went from a weaker relative positive divergence to a leading positive in the last 2 days.

 The 15 min chart, like many others remains in a leading positive position.

 The 30 min after having gone negative and confirming the move down, has recently gone positive.

The 60 min is in leading positive position.

This wouldn't be a long trade I would favor, if you did take it it must be considered extremely speculative and position size should be small and you'll need to be nimble. The point of the post is the general trend in copper as it recently broke important support, it may give us the typical volatility bounce we commonly see and I can't imagine it could do that without some market support.

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