Just going with the market's trend, we'd expect a gap fill on the opening gap down this morning, the market has been very diligent about filling gaps. A failure to fill a gap would be a change in character that would be noteworthy, we should be expecting to see more changes in the market's character just as we expected to see increased volatility.
You may recall it was the DIA and SPY yesterday at the close that had no hint of a positive divergence, conflicting with the QQQ/IWM. This morning there's a hint of a positive divergence in the DIA, as to be expected it has appeared on the fastest 1 min chart first, whether it builds or not from here will tell us more.
The DIA a.m. positive divergence has even made it to the 2 min chart. A divergence of this size and length (assuming it halted here) would generally be enough to halt a decline and put in a consolidation before moving lower. The divergence could grow and it could do that in a lateral trend or a declining trend intraday.
The IWM 1 min positive from yesterday has grown in to a leading positive, this is the strongest positive divergence among the major averages thus far.
The 2 min chart has continued its divergence from late yesterday
And the 5 min chart is showing signs as well, again overall the IWM has the strongest divergences this morning.
QQQ 1 min positive divergence, not very big or impressive as of now.
As the SPY finds a floor to likely build an a.m. range, the chart below is showing a positive divergence.
There was no positive in the SPY as of the close, this is the first.
We'll see if a range develops or there's an attempt to fill the gap.
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