Wednesday, May 2, 2012

EIA Petroleum Status report

Here it is, released at 10:30

Released On 5/2/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk4/27, 2012
PriorActual
Crude oil inventories (weekly change)4.0 M barrels2.8 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)-2.2 M barrels-2.0 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)-3.1 M barrels-1.9 M barrels
Since there's no consensus information, it is difficult to judge the report, the build in crude was obviously smaller than last week's. With Gasoline and Distillates seeing a draw again, it may be the build isn't enough to offset the demand in finished product.


USO's reaction...
 Here's the reaction at the 10:30 release. The EIA report seems to be one of the most leaked reports we see and often there's strange behavior in USO on Wednesday, once in a while given us some short term trades, we'll be on the lookout for that.
 Yesterday USO broke against the Euro/$USD correlation and rallied as the Euro had sold off, it seems the market knew it was getting away with something and as you'll see they took advantage of it. The drop in the Euro today (rise in the $USD) is lower than USO, this would suggest via the traditional legacy arbitrage correlation that USO should head lower, but yesterday we saw that correlation flipped on its head.

 USO 1 min positive at the 10:30 release.

The longer 5 min chart shows what they did with the strength in crude yesterday, as the negative divergence in to higher prices is clear.

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