Thursday, May 24, 2012

Euro Breaks Another Support level

I have to say, relatively speaking, the market is holding its own considering what the EUR and USD are doing, but this last break was 1 too many.

However lets not forget what caused the move down yesterday that we were able to buy in to, the GS "We're Bearish" which as we addressed yesterday means they are buying followed by the statement and retraction by former Goldman Sachs employee and Former Greek Prime Minister, Papademos.

In other words, it's hard to trust anything you see right now in price action as the last time Goldman put out a sentiment call, they were bullish at the March highs.

So just keeping up with today's events...

 The first and second break of support areas in the Euro today...

The SPY broke below an intraday support level on that last Euro move below a support level, however as mentioned, overall, relative to the Euro/USD, the market is still holding up much better than it normally would.

There are negative divergences in the $USD as it broke above resistance, both short term and intermediate term and there are positives in the Euro both short and intermediate term.

Head fakes?

The only real news out of Europe is an opinion poll (remember the last one and then the elections shocked the investing world as they went 60% anti-bailout parties whereas the pro-bailout parties were supposed to win).

From Greek opinion polls...

  • GREEK OPINION POLL SHOWS 85% IN FAVOR OF EURO
  • GREEK OPINION POLL SHOWS 12% OPPOSE EURO
However...

30% (a new high) support the anti-bailout/anti Euro Syriza party. So while Greeks (according to the polls in a country that doesn't have enough money to print tax documents) an overwhelming number of voters want to stay in the Euro, while at the same an overwhelming number of voters are supporting the 1 party that is most likely to take Greece out of the Euro.

Another example of EU insanity and why nothing ever gets fixed.


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