Thursday, May 24, 2012

SPY Update

While no real damage is being done to the underlying trade, it looks to me as if we are stuck at a consolidation range/resistance for the rime being, the EUR/USD correlation seems to be what's holding things up. It's not just the SPY that looks like this, but as I mentioned, a bunch of stocks and ETFs with longer term very positive divergences look very choppy in 3C thins morning on the short timeframes.


 Euro vs SPY (green). The excitement from yesterday sent equities above their FX correlation and I suspect before we can get much more upside momentum, there will be some arbitrage until the FX pair and the market sort of revert to some mean (whether the Euro moves up or the market moves down toward the mean).

 That 1 min SPY chart I was wondering about, DID NOT confirm the little move up out of the congestion area from the open.

ES (pre-market in light blue background) showed a positive divergence pre-market leading to some movement, it never really went negative as it fell in to the open where another relative positive divergence was made near the regular hours lows. The little run up out of the congestion area is confirming price action, but as price is at roughly the same relative level as pre-market (red trendline), note so is 3C, if 3C were leading I'd say more upside to come, being they are at the same level, I think consolidation or a pullback are probably most likely in the near term intraday.

We'll see, you remember how fast the market moved yesterday only a couple of hours after it went positive (inside information sure is a great huh?)

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