Thursday, May 24, 2012

Risk Assets

I had to cut this short...

 SPX is always green-Commoditis v. SPX today are showing more relative weakness, remember this is a Wall Street run cycle, they don't have as much control over commodities as we have seen on the long term charts of the 2012 rally. Commods are more in keeping with the $EUR/$USD correlation while stocks have seen more support keeping them somewhat range bound, especially vs the FX correlation.

 Multi day commod trend broke to the upside the day after we first saw something was going on with Euro/Dollar.

 Commods, SPX and Euro in blue, Commods are tracking more in line with the FX correlation, but still stronger than they should be

 Overall, the risk asset High Yield Credit is supportive of market gains

 Yields which are an excellent leading indicator-like a magnet for stocks are outperforming the SPX today

 They have been outperforming for nearly 2 weeks now, something is definitely up, glad I added the longs yesterday as a hedge.

 The $AUD is not yet giving the typical leading signal, China probably has a lot to do with that, but it is more supportive than it has been.

 The Euro/SPX correlation today, the market is holding up much better than it should, this is typical of a Wall Street initiated cycle or what is otherwise known as market manipulation.

 Euro on a longer term, remember it was the 15th we saw Euro accumulation and $USD distribution, the Euro trended higher while the SPX trended lower. I still think today's move in the Euro is a head fake move courtesy of GS and their cronies like Papademos.

 High Yield Corp. Credit is holding fairly well

 The longer term trend, at least HYC Credit isn't dropping like a rock, which it was until a few days ago.

 Here's the initial move in financial momentum I saw,

 Here is is a few minutes later, Financials are rotating in, I thought they would yesterday and thus the reason for adding FAS long.

 Tech is not in rotation today.

Secotr rotation, Financials are moving in as suspected yesterday, Basic Materials, Industrials and Discretionary. Energy should rotate in with the Euro. The defensive sectors are in rotation: Health Care, Staples and Utilities, I suspect they will start to rotate out.

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