Tuesday, May 8, 2012

It's all about Greece

That move higher in the EUR/USD is not because of the European close, it is because pro-bailout New Democracy leader, Samaras has responded to Tsipras's earlier statements.


 Samaras says he is now willing to accept a minority government within the governing coalitions, something he had previously ruled out. He also says he doesn't want to see new elections in Greece (they probably would not benefit his party any way), as well as voicing resistance to backing away from pro-bailout-austerity reforms. 


In the big picture, Samaras's statement means nothing, 60% of the country voted against the principles of his party although his party is the largest in the country. The two sides are so polarized and the anti-bilout side is fractured between at least 10 different splinter groups. The Euro is responding to the possibility the government formation issue will be resolved, chances are it will not be, but if the Euro can respond favorably long enough it could still be enough to move the market.


Short term tactics and speeches won't change the big picture fundamentals, but may be enough to move the market briefly.









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