Market Update-Opening Indications

Like I said, I don't usually put too much weight on a.m. trade, there's a lot of manipulation in the a.m. of limit orders for those of us that have to place orders and go to work, etc. When I was trading full time for a living, I rarely would make a trade before 10:30.

In any case, that morning manipulation might just be important in this case.

As I posted yesterday, which was a few possible scenarios regarding the bear flag/pennant (originally posted last week) and which way head fakes may occur, right now we have the best of both worlds, a Crazy Ivan, an upside and downside shakeout. Next up will be AAPL, you may recall I closed the June Calls at over a 100% profit and was looking for an AAPL pullback to roll those closed calls in to July, well we have our pullback.

The Bear flag/pennant with two probable shakeouts, or what we use to see a lot and named it a "Crazy Ivan".

 Here's a 5 min chart of the pennant, remember the market's job, "Make the most people wrong at any one time". Volume is heavy this a.m. and the PMI is probably a large part of that, but I suspect so are short orders as price moved below the pennant, this was one of the scenarios mentioned Friday and yesterday.

 SPY 1 min, a perfect example of a relative positive divergence at the long white arrow, prices are significantly lower (for the timeframe) yet 3C is at least equal and in this case higher.

 The 2 min SPY chart close up-Another perfect example of a relative positive divergence.

 The 2 min chart's trend scaled out shows it in a leading positive position.

 SPY 15 min in through the pennant, the largest divergences were both at shakeout areas.

 The 15 min chart scaled out to include the entire bear flag shows the SPY (as with the other averages) in a leading positive position.

The rest are intraday updates of the open, I just wanted to cover the bigger picture with the SPY above.

 DIA 1 min pretty much in line with price, nothing interesting.

 IWM was in line, never went negative and at the time of the capture was building a leading positive divergence.

Same story for the QQQ.

I'd expect (as usually is the case) at least an hour or two of flat-ish movement , testing lows, maybe shaking out some positions here and there. We'll see how the underlying trade progresses.