Thursday, May 31, 2012

Market Update

All in all I'm happy with the way things are going, I'm not buying July AAPL calls yet as I'm not convinced we are done with this intraday volatility. I will say though, as you saw with the AAPL intraday reversal, the head fake has been one of our best timing tools as they almost always occur just before a reversal and there's a reason for that as I have explained, it all has to do with trapping shorts or longs and creating momentum for the reversal.

 SPY Pennant, note how the trendlines have really been respected (I think that has more to do with Wall Street than Main Street-they need to create a pattern technical traders identify with). So far we have a Crazy Ivan which we use to see a lot about a year ago. The name Crazy Ivan comes from the movie, "The Hunt for Red October" and describes a Russian submarine captain's tactics to clear their baffles. The one place a submarine cannot hear an enemy sub following it is in the sub's prop wash, so the Russians would pull a 180 degree turn and head straight toward any potential sub following in their prop wash. I call this type of shakeout in both directions a Crazy Ivan shakeout because everyone is taken out, longs, shorts, those who switched positions thinking a pattern failed only to be stopped out again, it really is a very useful tactic to generate volume and b generating volume you are generating profits.
 On a 5 min chart it seems the trendline is drawn just about right as volume picks up whenever price crosses the trendline.

 DIA has improved a lot from this morning's "in line" status, although there's a small negative divergence, so maybe another test of support, maybe another shakeout? I just feel the intraday volatility isn't done yet.

 DIA 2 min with a big improvement, but also the same small negative divergence, but enough to turn price intraday.

 ES 1 min, there were several earlier positive and leading positive divergences, now it's pretty much in line with price.

 The IWM was one of the stronger of the lot, the 5 min chart is leading positive, I'm waiting to see this kind of activity in all of the averages.

 QQQ 1 min keeps marching higher.

 The 2 min reveals the same intraday neg. divergence as the DIA

 QQQ 3 min shows the same strong positive and an intraday reversal.

 The SPY has improved significantly from that early positive divergence in the small white box.

SPY 3 min.

So I'm going to see what happens on the intraday negative , a test of support, another shakeout?

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