Overnight and in to the open

Surprisingly Europe was pretty quiet, there was even some positive news regarding Spain's fiscal targets possibly getting an extension, German and French Retail sales were a bit better than forecasted. This is in no way any kind of important good news out of Europe, it's more of a brief reprieve for several hours in which there wasn't any new really bad news.

This time it was US data that came in bad.

First with regard to F_E_D easing, the best you can get out of all the recent F_E_D speakers is ambiguity, some want, some don't want, I'm not going to waste my time on something that no one can predict.


First ADP Payrolls missed at 8:15

Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
ADP employment	119,000	154,000	95,000  to 189,000	133,000

The print came in below consensus and the prior of 119k was revised down to 113k- consensus was 154k, actual was 133k.

That moved the market down in pre-market trade.

Next GDP

Released On 5/31/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q1p:2012

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 2.2 % 1.9 % 1.6 % to 2.1 % 1.9 % GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % to 1.5 % 1.7 %

GDP Q1 revision came in at consensus (the first print was 2.2%).

Also at 8:30, Initial Claims
Released On 5/31/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk5/26, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims - Level	370 K	370 K	367 K to 377 K	383 K
4-week Moving Average - Level	370.00 K			374.50 K
New Claims - Change	-2 K			10 K

This was a miss and higher than the consensus range. The prior was revised up to 373k. Continuing Claims came in a little better than consensus.

8:30 trade saw a brief bump up and that was lost shortly after.

It was the 9:45 Chicago PMI that really hurt...

Released On 5/31/2012 9:45:00 AM For May, 2012

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Business Barometer Index - Level 56.2  56.1  55.0  to 60.0  52.7

This is a huge miss and the lowest print since September of 2009. Check the Citi Economic Surprise Index. The respondent section had two words seen over and over, "slow" and "uncertain". Not a good print and the market is discounting it aggressively.


We'll take a look at the underlying action next as this PMI print has the QE crowd quite enthused.