Friday, June 29, 2012

FX

 Here's the daily chart of EUR/USD and this is the resistance level the Euro has had trouble holding, I also suspect if the Euro holds this and moves above the June highs, we'll see a Euro short squeeze which will send the market higher as well.

 On a 5 min chart, this is the break above that level, you can see how the Euro has leaked off a bit during regular hour market trade as I mentioned in the USO update.

 The Euro intraday is seeing a 2 min negative divergence.

 This has leaked slightly to the 3 min chart, but nothing horrible.

 The 1 min chart very recently has a slight positive, but it would need to really build on that and migrate through the 2 and 3 min charts before I'd suspect that it would hold the Euro up through the close. It may be getting ready to shape up for overnight, but this is way too early to tell with 1 divergence on a 1 min chart. It does match the $USD charts below for the same timeframes.


 The 2 min was leading positive and drifted off from that divergence.

 That bled through to the 3 min chart, this would suggest the $USD head a bit higher intraday.

 Again however, we see the 1 min is deteriorating, the opposite of what is seen in the Euro. Still this would have to bleed through to the 3 min chart and I don't give it a high probability of happening before the close.

Longer term, this supports the idea of a short squeeze in the Euro...

 The $USD negative at the May/early June top and has stayed leading negative even as it bounced in June.

The Euro went positive in May/June and stayed leading positive even as it pulled back in June. So the bigger picture still looks good for a possible Euro short squeeze.

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