Market Update

Yesterday afternoon gave us a few surprises, I outlined them in this post yesterday. On a short term intraday basis we have a few negative divergences, perhaps a pullback or consolidation or just a loss of some momentum.

As I noted in yesterday's post and this mornings, the accumulation seen yesterday in the late afternoon seemed to be quite heavy, it seems someone knew something, as a result it shows up in some unexpected (longer timeframe charts) almost immediately, it does not go through the normal process of migration through the timeframes from the shortest to the longest, it skips right over several timeframes as it was strong and immediate rather than the typical accumulating in to the lows as a process, this was more of an event. So there are some strange charts just to warn you. I haven't seen this happen too many times.

As you know, on Wednesday I said we needed to see a pullback before we'd see additional accumulation, then we saw the signals for a pullback, it looked as if it was going to plan, the typical pullback with accumulation, until that point yesterday in which I put out an update saying it looked like we'd see a run in to the close, what I didn't know then was that that accumulation was much more than just 1 min.

 The DIA as an example on a 15 min chart, we see a normal progression, accumulation at the 25/26 and then a VERY strong positive divergence yesterday. This completely skipped over several timeframes.

 DIA 1 min intraday shows the negative divergence on Wednesday which is when I said to watch for a pullback, and then positive divergences through all of yesterday, this a.m. there's a negative intraday divergence. I am going to have to make some decisions about several charts in which timeframes were skipped over, when in doubt, go to the longer timeframes with less noise like the 15 min above this chart. However intraday there still seems to be a bit of a neg. divergence.

 The 2 min chart showing Wed. neg. divergence for yesterday's pullback and very strong accumulation late in the day on a leading positive divergence, this a.m. there's a bit of a lack of confirmation, however yesterday's divergence was so strong it may not be a fair comparison.

 The longer term 5 min chart showing the pullback from the 19/20th, accumulation at the 25/26th lows, the negative divergence on Wed. and positive yesterday, this chart is In Line or CONFIRMATION.

 IWM 1 min also showing an intraday negative divergence as well as yesterday's very strong positive. This is what I originally saw yesterday and warned you a move up in to the close was likely, I didn't see the longer timeframes, nor would I have expected to.

 The 1 min intraday today on the IWM

 IWM 2 min shows Wed's negative divergence, the positive on Thursday's pullback and is in line or CONFIRMATION with the price trend.

 2 min intraday with a small negative divergence.

 IWM 15 min shows not only confirmation, but a leading positive position, most of this came from yesterday's divergence near the afternoon lows. The IWM 3-5 min charts look much different and I don't put much weight in them at this time as there was no migration, as mentioned above, usually accumulation/distribution is a process, this was an event.

 For instance, this QQQ 1 min chart shows no confirmation today whatsoever. I find this chart hard to trust.

 The 2 min shows the positive divergence yesterday and confirmation, as well as an intraday neg. divergence.

 The 15 min chart shows more than confirmation, it is leading positive, so the min chart is hard to trust as the longer charts are always more reliable, but this was an interesting event.

 QQQ 30 min shows the positive yesterday and is about where it should be

 SPY 1 min and the positive divergence through yesterday as we expected, the chart is in line on the open with an intraday negative divergence.

 Here's the intraday negative

 The 2 min chart shows some positive and leading positive divergences yesterday, as well as a negative intraday today, there's a slight miss on confirmation here.

 The 3 min chart may settle the argument as the entire trend is in leading positive position, despite the day to day lack of confirmation on the open. It may take some time for the charts in the 2-5 min range to short themselves out.

 SPY 5 min in confirmation, I drew on the chart in red and white boxes, areas of distribution and accumulation. Green arrows are trend confirmation.

SPY 15 min is falling just short of confirmation, I want to give it some time before making any judgements as we saw an event yesterday, now we are back in process mode.

All in all, thus far it has turned out as we expected, just not in a way we expected