GLD Update

Overall since getting a very strong short term trading signal on May 30th (long), the underlying tone (3C) of GLD's trade has been deteriorating, yet GLD has for several days traded up against it's dollar correlation, apparently reflecting hopes of QE to be announced or hinted at during the next F_O_M_C meeting this month.

For the first time in the last several days, GLD opened higher in correlation with the $USD, so GLD has traded up in or out of the FX correlation showing the correlation apparently has nothing to do with what is moving gold.

 GLD daily still trading above the bearish descending triangle, but that one day above gap resistance is suspicious, looking a lot like a typical false breakout reversal move.

 Here's the move mentioned above and trade since on a 5 min chart with today in green.

 The intraday 1 min chart showing a negative at yesterday's 12 pm highs and a positive intraday signal at the 2:20-ish lows and pretty much in line on the 1 min chart.

 A little longer view shows confirmation intraday on the gap up this am, 3C has traded with price since the open, but is leading slightly more negative than price action.

 A little bigger picture with the 15 min chart shows the strong positive divergence (trade signal) on May 30th, the price area in the yellow box is the suspicious looking failed breakout that filled the gap and failed. Overall the current 15 min chart is in a leading negative position, not confirming the trend at this time.


 The hourly chart which is the most influential of the intraday timeframes showed a very strong leading positive divergence on May 30th (many of you took the long trade and some made 200+% on GLD's subsequent move with Calls. Again you can see the suspicious area in the yellow bo with a negative divergence on that gap up open and like the 15 min chart, right now 3C is not confirming GLD's position.

 15 min chart of GLD (green ) vs the $USD (white), the normal correlation is inverse, the dollar trades up, gold trades down and vice-versa. However we see a lot of trade in which they are moving together in the orange boxes, even at the May 30th signal the $USD was moving higher.

Today is the first day in several that the correlation has returned to normal, but I don't think the FX correlation has anything to do with GLD's trade as gold has ben acting as a QE sentiment indicator as gold has a lot to gain from more easing or dollar debasing. We saw some bad US data pre-open and that (in the mind of traders) pressures Bernie to move on easing, thus gold opens higher.

However despite the sentiment indications, GLD just doesn't look like it has the same support it had on May 30th. Right now I'm skeptical of any gold trades until we get a more unambiguous signal/trend.