Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Overnight and in to the open

Overnight Euro-Zone Industrial production was released, the print wasn't as bad as expected coming in at -0.8% (month over month) vs consensus of -1.2% (previous -.3%).

Analysis was also released overnight stating that Germany's creditworthiness has been diminished by the continued bailouts of the PIGGS countries. The safe haven German Bund traded lower on the news.

Also today in Germany, parliament is set to discuss ratification of the ESM, the EU fiscal Pact and the proposed Financial Transaction Tax.

OPEC is also due to start a meeting in Vienna over the next few days to discuss output quotas.

One of the main worries overnight has been Italy, Italy's share of the Spanish Bank Bailout would be 22%, the loan Spain receives is at 3%, but Italian borrowing to Finance it is over 6%. Many are concerned Italy has reached the point of no return and they are next in line for a bailout.

Pre-open the US Producer Price Index (PPI) missed


PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change-0.2 %-0.6 %-1.2 % to -0.2 %-1.0 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change1.9 %0.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change2.8 %2.8 %


Also released at 8:30, Retail Sales


PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.1 %-0.2 %-0.7 % to 0.1 %-0.2 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.1 %-0.1 %-0.4 % to 0.2 %-0.4 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.1 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.4 %Sa-0.1 %
Retail Sales came in at consensus, but the prior was revised worse from .1% to -.2%. Retail Sales Less Autos had the biggest miss in 2 years.

We still have Business Inventories at 10 a.m. and the EIA Petroleum weekly report at 10:30.

As for ES and Euro-Dollar, the Euro actually gained some ground as it look set to do yesterday, not a huge amount; while ES lost some ground from yesterday's 4 p.m. NY close.

 Yesterday's close and ES overnight with the white arrow showing the European open. ES topped shortly after the European open and slid since.


 ES overnight in to the 9:30 NY open, the white arrow being the European open.

 The EUR/USD shows the Euro gaining some ground overnight since the 4 p.m. NY close yesterday.

Still the Euro has some more ground to cover before reaching a significant market moving area at major resistance (red arrow) with the May 1 down trend at the blue arrow and the recent uptrend off the lows at the green arrow.

We'll take a look at opening indications and gold as it pops again on the US data misses as QE3 hopes rise.



No comments: