Interestingly the NFP whisper number is out and making its rounds, we rarely hear the whisper number, but there is official consensus on an economic report or stock earnings and then there's the whisper number which is Wall Street's personal consensus, ths the reason you don't often hear it. This is why we sometimes see strange reactions to earnings that didn't beat consensus, yet the stock still jumps higher or a stock that did beat consensus yet fell lower, it's because the stock didn't meet the whisper number.
Official consensus for the NFP was 150k, the whisper number was much lower at 100k so the actual print of 69k was below even the downward revised whisper number. However when looking at the GLD positive divergences it's not the print that interest me, it's the whisper number being so much lower than consensus. With that last May 30th 60 min divergence (for newer members a 60 min divergence usually takes time to build, seeing one develop so fast and so strong suggests there was huge accumulation and if Wall Street somehow had a tip off that the NFP print would come in worse than consensus, as the whisper number suggests, given the urgency shown on May 30th in 3c (because they couldn't have known about this very long), I'd suspect they were privy to some official information that they aren't legally supposed to be, but the SEC is a toothless tiger so no one really cares.
Here are the updated 3C charts since May 30th...
I didn't feel there was any need to annote the positive divergence here, it's pretty clear.
There was already a positive divergence going in to May 16th, remember May 15th is the day we saw some strange readings in the currencies, May 16th they started acting out on those readings, the market did not follow and broke the traditional FX arbitrage correlation. On this 60 min chart, the urgency shown at May 30th stands out, while I didn't buy GLD (personal biases I need to sort out), I've received several emails this morning from some of you who did based on these charts or bought miners, with 200+% gains-nice job! There's not much new on this chart, it stayed positive and leading, but the main accumulation was at the lows of May 30th.
The 15 min chart doesn't reveal anything shockingly unusual beyond the May 30th accumulation.
However the 1 min chart does show a strong period of accumulation yesterday front 2 p.m. through the close in a classic flat range where accumulation/distribution are often seen.
It sounds and looks like the NFP (at least the bias of it) were leaked and I'd guess early this week.
This probably explains the lack of signals anywhere yesterday, more or less meaning there wasn't much in the way of institutional activity in front of the NFP print which makes sense being they had a whisper number so much lower than consensus.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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