Sorry for the radio silence, but I've been jumping back and forth between layouts trying to put together a lot of new information.
Other than out long term VERY bearish veiw on the market, we've known for a while that something big is going on that is not represented in price, as always, PRICE IS DECEPTIVE.
Many of you hve heard about this, but years ago I use to get the research reports for the trading department of a major Wall Street Investment Bank, all of you would recognize the name. I obtained them legally-at least from my side, but this is the deep down nuts and bolts that the trading desks make all of their decisions with. I thought I hit the jackpot with an inside line in to one of Wall Streeet's biggest investment banks, but the information was useless. I tried to follow the implications and it seemed absolutely useless until about 6 months later I dug up one of the old reports and looked at the market, exactly what they were planning happened, except it didn't happen until months after. In retrospect that makes sense as large positions and reversing strategies takes time, but the point is, Wall Street works in front of the market by a comfortable margin. On small bounces we have seen them setting them up several days in advance, on bigger moves sometimes months in advance. I have shown the charts of homebuilders probably a dozen times, they were being accumulated during the 2000 Tech crash, some went on to make nearly 5000%, but after the tech boom, who in their right minds would have thought housing that appreciated in the single digits a year would be the next bull market? Wall St. knew and years in advance, I have shown you the 3C charts of them under accumulation during the Tech bubble.
The point is, we have had confirmation everywhere that there are huge positive divergences, May 15th seems to be an important date. We knew the $USD would have to fall and the Euro gain, or at least the $USD weaken and we have the charts to show that is what they've been planning, but we had no idea how.
Here are the Euro and USD charts with 3C telling us something big was underway, it was the when and how we didn't understand.
Look at the leading positive divergence intraday in the Euro today
Longer term, this 30 min chart with a huge leading positive divergence has also been part of the "Something big". The negative divergence sending the Euro lower is about right for the downtrend, this leading positive is not right, something bigger is going on. Also note the date where it rally gets going, May 15th, the same day I looked at 3C on both currencies and asked , "Do they know something we don't?"
Look at the $USD distribution today, no doubt the NFP is part of it, but this has been going on a while.
Rhe intensity is picking up now-$USD 2 min 2 week trend.
$USD positive divergence was big enough that the uptrend should have been much longer, the leading negative on a 30 min chart shows something changed and again-May 15th was the date.
The Euro on the NFP print, but is this the start of the catalyst that fulfills the divergences seen above on the long term charts?
I have a lot more information as today is yielding a lot of new information and clues. I'm going to try to focus on the market right now until the close and then gather all of this new data and try to figure out what the tactics of this "Something Big" are, strategically we have known about it for a while through the 3C divergences, we just haven't understood what exactly they are up to, but all of it points to much higher prices.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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