I'm getting a LOT of emails on both today. To summarize, the 3C position on GLD, last week I had a put position because the 30-60 min charts looked so bad. However the daily chart seems like GLD may be under accumulation and as such, whenever it rises too far above what has acted as support at the $148.50 area, it gets knocked down. I did close the put position Thursday/Friday last week as it looked like GLD was getting ready to bounce, I planned on looking for an area to start a new put position as the 30-60 min charts still suggest GLD will head back to at least the support area and perhaps even below.
Miners are not as east to summarize, but both are reacting as GLD started to imply late last week (the reason I closed the Put position).
Why GLD is bouncing today is beyond me as Germany pretty much stated that they are not willing to share the burden of more bailouts, ironically the same day Cyprus asks for one. The ECB for their part is sending mixed signals, but today's is they don't want to be the buyer of sovereign debt, just as they released their own debt rating plans last week (diametrically opposed ideas). Gold as an easing sentiment indicator doesn't seem to have reason to rally today so my take is this is simply a technical bounce, one we saw coming late last week before all this new "news" hit the market).
For the time being, I'w rather take short positions in GLD at least until we see what it does back down around support. I believe it is important to trade within the timeframe of the analysis you are looking at. Yes, there are daily charts that point to GLD perhaps getting ready to/ or in the process of building a base to rally from. However, first it looks like GLD must fall further, so that's the timeframe I'm looking at and the one I want to trade for now.
GLD put position closed last Friday morning as short term positive divergences and Rate of Change suggested GLD would bounce. I can't find any 'easing news" that would send GLD higher, so I assume this is just part of what was sen last week and is a technical move.
GLD today alone looks as if there was some Central Banks news released. Actually it appears just to be a break above some intraday resistance from 6/21.
Gold Miners/GDX have moved as well from a gap down to in the green.
The story in GLD that I'm interested in right now is the 60 min negative divergence in place suggesting GLD heads lower and toward support around the white trend line, maybe even breaks it. At that point I will be looking at the bigger picture/Primary trend for clues.
GLD 1 min today is pretty much in line with price.
At 5 mins it's not very impressive, this is why I'd rather trade GLD from the short side on a short term basis for now. I'm not ready to commit to a short position in GLD quite yet, but that would be the next play I'd be looking for.
GDX 1 min positive right off the gap down and pretty much in line.
GDX's 15 min chart is starting to improve, however before committing to a long position, I'd want to see what GDX looks like around the $48 level. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that GDX would diverge too far from GLD and what GLD is likely yo do in the VERY short term, the near term over the next several days and the longer term. For now, I am assuming this is just part of a GLD technical bounce.
Junior miners...
GDXJ 5 min looks quite positive here. If I were long GDXJ I'd probably hold it here, but I'd be very attentive to GDXJ at near term resistance around $21.25 (same as GDX's $48 level).
For now, unless 30-60 min charts improve, I'd be more comfortable being short all of these at higher levels (GDX around $48, GDXJ $21+, GLD $155) or whenever there's a very negative signal. In essence, waiting for the trade to come to us again.
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